The US FCC (Federal Communications Commission) has said that it will not certify any new foreign-made drones for use in the US.Models currently on offer in the US can continue to be imported and sold.But if the FCC continues its current course of action, no new drones will be allowed in the US market.
French drones or Chinese ones, overseas-made drones made by US firms, they´ll all be banned.Concretely, the FCC says that, ¨As specified below, today’s decision does not impact a consumer’s ability to continue using drones they previously purchased or acquired.Nor does today’s decision prevent retailers from continuing to sell, import, or market device models approved earlier this year or previously through the FCC’s equipment authorization process.
By operation of the FCC’s Covered List rules, the restrictions imposed by today’s decision apply to new device models.¨ The FCC Covered list, is a list of communications equipment that is banned due to national security reasons, because they ¨pose an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States or the security and safety of United States persons.¨ Previously, this list has been used to ban Huawei equipment, ZTE equipment, Hikvision security equipment, and Kaspersky Lab antivirus software.This is the first time that, rather than go after a company with ties to foreign security agencies that poses a considerable risk because of its products, the ban is targeted at a category of goods.The FCC Covered list is a discretionary instrument, but a rather broad and blunt one at that.
It is unclear whether there is a legal basis for using this instrument so broadly and whether companies can appeal or fight this somehow in the courts.FCC commissioner Brendan Carr stated that, ¨”Criminals, terrorists, and hostile foreign actors have intensified their weaponization of these technologies, creating new and serious threats to our homeland” and that he wants to, ¨unleash American drone dominance.¨ Given the fact that DJI has almost complete and total dominance over the drone industry globally, this is probably a purely anti-DJI move meant to stimulate a local US drone economy.Soldiers assigned to Hunter Army Airfield Innovation Center, 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, Savannah, Ga., work with subject matter experts to assemble drones made from parts that were 3D-printed using the Expeditionary Manufacturing Cell.
Image courtesy of Army 1st Lt.Decean Brown, 3rd Infantry Division.The US is probably very worried about the potential for Chinese companies and the Chinese government to stimulate global surveillance capabilities.
More crucially, the War in Ukraine is largely being decided by drones.Ukraine fights valiantly on because it has locally produced millions of partially 3D printed drones.These drones have completely changed modern warfare in a way that has left Western planners befuddled.
This decision makes it clear that US leadership does not have any faith in the US procurement model and its defense industry.The government believes that DJI will win out against all that the US has to offer.If it did not, then this ban would not be necessary, and defense stimulus for military drones would suffice.
Soldier UAV operator launches army drone with bomb to drop into enemy fortifications and trenches.Concept using military robots in modern warfare.Image courtesy of Stratasys Meanwhile, a lot of US and European procurement continues on its previous course.
It’s kind of like, after the Maginot Line had been bypassed, everyone acts shocked and then continues to build the Maginot Line.The stupidity in US and European procurement right now is unmatched.I´m really starting to believe that US planners are desperate to lose any future conflict, and Europe just wants to blow money on dumb vehicles that will last 3 minutes on the battlefield to save some jobs.
The reality in Ukraine is that millions of 3D-printed, truly autonomous drones are the defining tool of modern warfare and have already changed how war is fought.Procurement idiocy and a persistence in constructing exactly those vehicles that will be eliminated by $200 drones will be a huge factor in the decline and eventual defeat of the West.Not to worry, the FCC at least is showing some pluck.
I can only see this current decision as an attempt by the US to counter DJI´s prowess in drones and China´s manufacturing prowess generally.This only makes sense if planners do not believe that the current US industry is capable of producing effective competition to DJI.It also only makes sense if mass-produced UAS are indeed seen as a defining element of modern warfare.
Scenarios So what are the implications of this for the 3D printing industry? What scenarios could happen with this decision? This could be a kind of trial balloon, posturing by the FCC that could be reversed quickly.This has happened before.Legal opposition to this move could see it overturned at some point, and lobbying could also see a reversal.
It is unclear if the FCC covered list can be used this broadly.DJI and others could manufacture in the United States.This would comply with this ban and let them continue to compete with some choice models.
Many component sets could be imported, and final assembly could be done in the US.This would not meaningfully add to US drone prowess but satisfy the legal requirement.DJI and other firms could use 3D printing and aftermarket kits to allow for modular upgrades to existing models.
Engineers could design ways to add new cameras, batteries, sensors, and more to existing models.DJI continues to sell the Mavic, Air, and Flip models for attractive prices.A separate upgrade kit could easily make the old model competitive.
DJI could sell these kits themselves or others could manufacture them independently.DJI and other firms could turn to 3D printing to let people upgrade existing drones themselves.This would go some way towards explaining DJI´s November investment in Elegoo.
Downloadable designs could extend the functionality of existing models; they could be adapted to particular tasks more quickly, be more specialized, and accommodate new upgrades.A design platform for new drone designs could let the company profit from future upgrades while it continues to sell those components that it can, batteries & motors, that fit precisely with those designs.DJI and others could focus solely on the kit market in the US and sell those components that they can there and focus more on the rest of the world.
US companies like Autel, Skydio, Parrot, and more could see a resurgence because of this move.There will be a lot of short-term uncertainty and disruption in the consumer drone market as retailers, consumers, and producers scramble for certainty.The rule states that, ¨Uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and UAS critical components produced in a foreign country¨ will not be certified.
On the one hand, this means that DJI can manufacture in the States, but it also means that companies such as Parrot and Skydio will have to reshore everything.There will be a lot of curious companies looking at reshoring drone manufacturing.There will be a lot of interest in 3D printing for tooling, drone components, kits, upgrades, and whole drones in the US.
Ukrainian, French, Japanese, and other firms could license their IP to US companies that manufacture locally to gain a foothold in the US market.Disruption of the current market could allow local niche players to sell their particular drones into the market.The US could develop stronger local drone manufacturing and a stronger drone industry.
US consumers would pay more for drones and would not have access to the latest models, while the US drone industry would not meet the challenge and would not produce drones locally.Prices may go up in the US, but local production would expand, and for some models, the US would have a very competitive offering.Maybe Mavic would still be better, but DJI would not be able to dislodge newfound US players in agricultural drones, for example.
A lot of US startups could jump into this opportunity creating new players in the market.Some stronger US drone players could emerge.A credible US DJI competitor could perhaps emerge.
Some local production, 3D printing of kits, extending current designs through 3D printing, stimulating modularity through 3D printing, importation of key components, and lobbying would seem to be the most likely course of combined action for DJI.DJI revenue is over $3.5 billion, and it controls around 80% of the US consumer drone market.The total drone market is estimated to be worth north of $40 billion.
This gives the firm a lot of incentive to lobby and seek a way around this measure.A lot of uncertainty will prevail initially, with companies wondering about the administration´s resolve on this issue.Airman holding up a drone frame successfully printed from recycled material.
Images courtesy of re:3D/USAF.Images courtesy of re:3D/USAF.Weighing Options Different analyses will provide vastly different outcomes here.
The most important thing would be to determine the administration´s resolve.The current Trump presidency is set to end on the 20th.of January 2029, this is over 1100 days away.
Some makers may try to promote and incentivize, in order to extend the life of current platforms.Some firms may think that their current models, with incentives, may suffice for that time and hope that a new administration could change course.Others may think that the market’s competitiveness is such that this won´t work.
A lot is uncertain now.But I believe that waiting for a reversal will be an idle hope.This decision uses a rather crude instrument, but it does make sense from the US perspective.
Just before the Second World War, a ban on foreign fighter aircraft import into the US would seem to make sense.This seems like a similar scenario.This move makes a lot more sense than other recent industrial policies and tariffs.
Any future administration, Republican or Democrat, would find it much easier & expedient to lower Canadian soft lumber tariffs, import tariffs for allies generally, or to meddle differently in the chips market.Even if we look at it purely as a power play or a way to generate future lobbying dollars and political points, reducing many other tariffs would be more expedient and lucrative.Lifting this ban would make drones cheaper and be a massive benefit for a prominent Chinese firm, while lifting other tariffs would seem friendlier and benefit more organizations.
As with earlier tariffs, we are currently seeing a lot of indecision, and it is unclear how companies will act.What About 3D Printing? This will be a boon for 3D Printing.New tooling, new drone startups, new localized drone production, and drone kits that come with 3D printed parts will all lead to more 3D Printed parts being sold.
Especially the combination of downloadable STL files, kits to circumvent rules, and kits shipped with print farm-produced parts, along with US drone startups, will drive growth.US firms will have to switch to producing parts locally, especially if they also want to cater to the government market.This will lead to more drones being made in the US.
A lot of custom parts, components, molds, tooling, proellors, assemblies, and more will also be 3D printed.This measure is set to lead to a long and sustained increase in 3D printing in the US and will be a benefit to print farms, OEMs selling 3D printers, and service bureaus.More flexible US production will result, which will use more 3D printing than before.
3D printing can let new entrants make parts locally quickly.Without having to commit to factories or other huge investments in tooling, companies can produce drone components locally.This decision is set to be a boon for 3D printing and may act as a new impulse for renewed US drone manufacturing.
It is unlikely in the near term that anyone can come close to besting DJI technologically.But, perhaps in certain niches, larger drones for example, credible US players can emerge.In the long run these could provide an alternative.
DJI is, however, a formidable, very competitive firm that makes excellent products; it may very well be able to circumvent and thrive despite the FCC´s actions.Generally however we can assume that the FCC new drone ban will be a boon for 3D printing.Subscribe to Our Email Newsletter Stay up-to-date on all the latest news from the 3D printing industry and receive information and offers from third party vendors.
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